Tuesday 6 September 2011

TEESTA AGRO-a short note

THEY SAY IF U CANT WRITE UR INVESTMENT THESIS ON A FREAKING NAPKIN IT AINT WORTH IT, SO IN THE INTEREST OF BREVITY( AND THE FACT THAT I TRULY DNT FIND ANY THING MORE TO KNOW BOUT THIS 1)a short note -
TEESTA AGRO IS A  MICROCAP ENGAGED IN THE MANUFACTURE OF SSF (ITS SUMTHING LKE PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER, I TRULY KUDNT CARE LESS!) .ON AN OPERATING BASIS ITS TRULY ONE OF THE MOST PATHETIC  AND BARELY PROFITABLE BIZ AROUND WITH MARGINS OF LIKE .5%(NET PROFIT MARGIN).IT IS CLEARLY QUITE PNE TO POLITICAL RISKS(I.E . PRIMARILY SUBSIDY POLICIES OF THE GOVT.).OH YEAH, IN CASE U DIDNT NOTICE ALREADY ,THIS IS ALSO A CYCLICAL BIZ.IN THE BACKDROP OF SUCH INTERESTING DANGERS TO THE BIZ, IT BEGS THE BIGGEST QUESTION (ATLEAST ACCORDING TO  ME ) AN INVESTOR  FACES

AM I GETTING PAID TO TAKE RISK?????

 LETS FACE IT THERES NO DEARTH OF PLACES TO PUT OUR MONEY IN(ATLEAST 4 MODERATE TO SUB PAR RETURNS,ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT MARKET MELT DOWN).SO WOTS SO FUCKING AWSUM ABOUT TEESTA AGRO?
LETS TAKE A LOOK
BALANCE SHEET AWSUMNESS

TOTAL DEBT(WHICH INCLUDES ALL SHORT AND LONG TERM LIABILITIES,SERIOUSLY)=  17 CRORES

TOTAL CASH= 20 CRORES

SUNDRY DEBTORS = 22 CRORES

  1.5 CRORES APPROX WORTH  OF ALLAHABAD BANK SHARES

EPS= RS 2 APPROX (EVEN IF U DONT USE CASH EARNINGS LIKE I LIKE TO DO AND USE THE FREAKING EPS NO.)

CMP=RS.10
P/E =5

(NOTE: IVE LEFT OUT CURRENT LIABILITIES ,THE PURISTS CAN FRET AL THEY LIKE BUT I BELIEVE THEY LL   BE EASILY ABLE TO SERVICE THOSE...ALSO I VE LEFT OUT THE VALUE OF THE SSF INVENTORY)





I HOPE U D AGREE  FROM MY ALL TOO BRIEF ANALYSIS THAT@ RS.6 CRORE THE COMPANY IS  PRETTY CHEAP  ANYWAY U LOOK AT IT!!!!!!!!!!
OTHER POSITIVE FACTORS-
1.42 PERCENT PROMOTER HOLDING
2.they are CONSIDERING a dividend  1st tym eva


OTHER NEGATIVE FACTORS-
1.IT IS A PRETTY ILLIQUID STOCK,TRADES IN BATCHES OF 100 AND OFTEN DOENT TRADE 4 WEEKS...SO UNLESS U CAN W8 4 A MINIMUM OF  3 YEARS...DONT BOTHER


AND REMEMBER VOLATILITY IS A FRIEND







EAGER TO HEAR UR THOUGHTS PPL!!!!




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