so sweet?

As I wake up into an early   “ monday morning”(its four pm , but hey jab jago tabhi savera ,right?) , the buzz from last night still  going through the senses, I understand,  as it finally sinks through that some important decisions have to be made- IM DEFINITELY NOT ONE FOR IMPERIAL BLUE  (  guess one of the cheapest whiskey s ever…but not for mere mortals as I’ve learnt),that’s one for sure. Anyways WARNING- SERIOUS FOOD FOR THOUGHT TO FOLLOW,IF U R HERE 4 A STOCK IDEA ,SKIP A FEW SECTIONS .

I’m not sure about  most things in life but you ‘ve got to admit, THERES REALLY NO INVESTING WORTH DOING WITHOUT A BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY,  that’s one thing I’m pretty sure about. Margin of safety,(much like the SWEET LIFE!) is kind of different for   kinds of investors, for some it’s all about buying  above average businesses at average prices(joel greenblatt) while others are more about finding average businesses at  below average prices(buffet in the early years, walter schloss, while we re at it this was basically grahams whole deal!), some truly hold safety as paramount and for them the deal is more like one strike and out ( mr.marathe and rohit) while some are  more willing to experiment and embrace a little risk for bigger reward (ayush,Rajeev desai and of   course, amit the multibagger guy).Right now ,for me, margin of safety means sticking to companies with strong balance sheets ,high promoter holding and cheap on BOTH assets as well as (usually) earnings basis.

Let me give it to you straight, whatever style we follow ,we, armchair generals make a lot of spoken as well as unspoken assumptions  ,(as the wise guys said all knowledge is divided into known known,unknown known,known unknown and unknown unknown…right mr.greenspan?) thankfully by God s grace we just have to get a FEW KEY ONES right to make real money  AND YEAH IT REALLY PAYS TO BE HUMBLE   KNOWING FULLY WELL  THAT WHATEVER INVESTING THESIS WE COME UP ,IT IS AT BEST A VAGUE EDUCATED GUESS  ,REALITY IS TOO UNPREDICTABLE A BEAST TO BE MODELED PRECISELY.  

THANKFULLY  KEYNES DICTUM”I D RATHER BE VAGUELY RIGHT THAN PRECISELY WRONG APPLIES HERE” IS INDEED THE MOTTO OF ANY TIME TESTED INVESTING PHILOSOPHY, WITH THAT  IN MIND IM GOING TO BEGIN MY 2 CENTS ON ONE OF THE MOST INTRIGUING FAT PITCHES IVE EVER SEEN IN MY INCREDIBLY SHORT “CAREER” AS AN INVESTOR .HOPEFULLY I VE GIVEN YOU SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT ,IF NOT SORRY FOR THE LECTURE(AND INCASE SOME OF YOU ARE WONDERING ,YEAH IM HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A FEW BLOGGERS  ….SUE ME MR.GANNON!).YES IT IS  GOING TO BE A HELLUVA RIDE,IT IS REALLY GONNA TEST YOUR PATIENCE AND YOU BET IT’S  PRETTY MUCH ONE OF THE  MOST HATED STOCKS AROUND.IF YOU WANT A BETTER ,BRUTALLY SHORT AND SHARPER ANALYSIS THAN MINE(ILL TRY TO KEEP IT SHORT AS WELL)  JUST GO HERE

 http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2011/05/financial-affairs-intec-capital-money.html

LADIES( IF ANY ,OF THE PRETTY ONES WHO READ INVESTING BLOGS) AND GENTLEMEN PRESENTING

MONEY MATTERS FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD.

THOSE OF  YOU WHO BOTHER PICKING UP THE MORNING PAPER WOULD PROBABLY HAVE HEARD OF THIS ONE…LET ME REFRESH SOME MEMORIES ,LIC HOUSING SCAM ,REMEMBER?

YEAH THIS IS THE VERY SAME NBFC WHOSE CEO AND A FEW KEY PERSONELL WERE CAUGHT BRIBING THE LIC HOUSING OFFICIALS FOR APPROVING LOANS TO BUILDERS , THE CASE IS RIGHT NOW SUB JUDICE I BELIEVE AND HENCE I COULDN’T FIND ANYTHING MEANINGFUL APART FROM THAT THE CO. CEO IS PROBABLY,ACCORDING TO MY PHONE CALL(SERIOUSLY MORE OF US SHOULD TRY IT) CONVERSATION WITH THE NEW COMPANY SECRETARY (I THINK THE 2^ND OR 3^RD ONE AFTER THE SCANDAL),  I GUESS THEY WANTED TO DIVERSIFY INTO OTHER  BUISSNESSES  , IRONICALLY ,IT SEEMS (ATLEAST ACCORDING TO THE QUARTERLY FILINGS) THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE THEIR CORE BIZ NOW.LET ME EXPLAIN  MMFSL IS  BASICALLY FOUR BIZ –TRADING ,FINANCING ,ADVISORY AND BROKING. ADVISORY WAS ONCE THE CORE BIZ OF THE CO.  AND ALSO ONE OF ITS MOST PROFITABLE ONES,BUT I GUESS  THAT SHIP HAS SAILED WITH MOST CORPORATES DISSASSOCIATING WIH IT,BROKING WAS NOT THAT BIG TO BEGIN WITH(UNLESS YOU GO WAY BACK WHEN THE FIRM WAS CALLED DOVER SECURITIES), TOGETHER THESE 2 REPRESENTED EFFECTIVELY  THEIR MOST RISK FREE REVENUE SOURCES. AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE QUARTERLIES, THE REVENUE MIX HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RISKIER PARTS OF THE BIZ –TRADING AND FINANCING(ALTHOUGH I LIKE THIS SOURCE  CONSIDERING THAT ITSCONSIDERING ‘UNLINKED”  TO THE STATE OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND REALTY SECTOR DEFINITELY NEEDS DOUGH AND IS OFFERING PRETTY SWEET DEALS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WILLING TO DO THEIR HOMEWORK)

THINKING ABOUT IT ,I GUESS THEY TOO ARE THINKING ALONG THE SAME LINES APPARENTLY. AS CAN BE SEEN FROM THE LAST QUARTERLIES THEY HAVE BEEN QUIETLY SHIFTING CAPITAL AWAY FROM ADVISORY(BOY ARE WE GONNA MISS THAT HIGH MARGIN ,ALMOST RISK FREE BIZ) TO FINANCING AND PROBABLY TRADING AS WELL .HERES THE  STATS-

              

                     CAPITAL EMPLOYED

                SEPTEMBER 2010     SEPTEMBER 2011  ADVISORY – 69 CRORES          39 CRORES

(DEBT)TRADING  -230 CRORES  250 CRORES

STOCK BROKING-    9 CRORES     15 CRORES

FINANCING-             63 CRORES    503 CRORES

(IN CASE YOU DIDN’T NOTICE, DEBT IS THIS NBFC’S THING,THE CEO WASN’T CALLED THE KING OF THE BOND MARKET FOR NOTHING)

HERE ARE THE (HALF YEARLY) PROFITABILITY STATS-

                         REVENUE       PROFIT B4 TAX &INTEREST                    

                         2010          2011     2010     2011

 ADVISORY              124 CR         2.25 CR     105CR       -.27CR

 TRADING                 146 CR       215 CR       2.8CR        4.6CR

STOCK BROKING    2 CRORES    .01 CR        -.1CR        -.89CR

FINANCING                7.2 CR       27 CR        7.3 CR       18 CR

BEFORE YOU SKIP THIS POST (YEAH YEAH, I GET IT THIS REALLY LOOKS LIKE THE AFTERMATH OF A KARDASHIAN WEDDING) REST ASSURED THE REST  OF THE NEWS IS FOR THE  OPTIMIST,AND LETS FACE IT ,ITS REALLY NOT A GOOD IDEA TO READ TOO MUCH  INTO 6 MONTHS WORTH OF FINANCIALS,ILL KEEP IT SHORT AND SIMPLE.

 

SO WHERES THE FAT PITCH?

FOR STARTERS IN AN YEAR WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC TURMOIL NOT TO MENTION NOT SO AWESOME CONDITIONS BACK HOME COMBINED WITH THEIR OWN PROBLEMS WHICH HAS GOT CLIENTS FLEEING  AWAY THEY VE MANAGED TO HAVE POSITIVE RETURNS.

THEY’VE SIGNALLED A STRATEGY CHANGE IN THE ANNUAL REPORT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR ITSELF,EFFECTIVELY BY STATING THAT THEY LL BE CONCENTRATING ON “FUND BASED ACTIVITIES”(WHATEVER THAT REALLY MEANS).

THE CEO/PROMOTER  HAS INCREASED HIS   PERSONAL STAKE IN THE COMPANY TO 60% THIS YEAR.HENCE GREATLY  REDUCING THE CHANCES OF MISALIGNED INCENTIVES THAT PLAGUE I-BANKS.ALSO APPARENTLY IT SEEMS NONE OF THE FII’S(INCLUDING GOLDMAN SACHS I BELIEVE) WHO PARTICIPATED IN LAST YEARS QIP SEEM TO HAVE SOLD THEIR HOLDINGS.

ALONGWITH THIS COMPANY HAS A PRETTY SOLID BALANCE SHEET WITH NEGLIGIBLE DEBT AND AS OF LAST YEAR AROUND 775 CRORES IN CASH.YES,THIS AINT A TYPING MISTAKE AFTER THE QIP THE CO. CASH BALANCE HAS SWELLED TO A TOTAL OF SEVEN HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE CRORES APPROXIMATELY(THESE FUNDS HAVE BEEN RELEASED BY THE CBI EARLIER THIS YEAR AND IT SEEMS THEY VE ALREADY STARTED INVESTING THEM).OH BY THE WAY ,THE MARKET CAP OF THE COMPANY IS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING 350 CRORES.                      

IN SHORT FOLKS,WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF A TURNAROUND TYPE RETURNS WITHOUT THE NEGATING INFLUENCE OF DEBT AND MOST OTHER HEADACHES ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE  PRICE OF A FREAKING NET – NET!

MERRY CHRISTMAS,EH?

EAGER TO HEAR YOUR COMMENTS.

DISCLOSURE:THIS AMATEUR ANALYST IS PRETTY BIASED ON THIS STOCK AND DESPERATELY NEEDS TO HEAR THE NEGATIVES ON THIS SITUATION.HE HAS INVESTED AROUND 33% OF HIS NET WORTH/POCKET MONEY HERE,YOU ARE ADVISED TO CAREFULLY MAKE YOUR DECISION AND DO A TON OF YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

TEESTA AGRO-a short note

THEY SAY IF U CANT WRITE UR INVESTMENT THESIS ON A FREAKING NAPKIN IT AINT WORTH IT, SO IN THE INTEREST OF BREVITY( AND THE FACT THAT I TRULY DNT FIND ANY THING MORE TO KNOW BOUT THIS 1)a short note -
TEESTA AGRO IS A  MICROCAP ENGAGED IN THE MANUFACTURE OF SSF (ITS SUMTHING LKE PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER, I TRULY KUDNT CARE LESS!) .ON AN OPERATING BASIS ITS TRULY ONE OF THE MOST PATHETIC  AND BARELY PROFITABLE BIZ AROUND WITH MARGINS OF LIKE .5%(NET PROFIT MARGIN).IT IS CLEARLY QUITE PNE TO POLITICAL RISKS(I.E . PRIMARILY SUBSIDY POLICIES OF THE GOVT.).OH YEAH, IN CASE U DIDNT NOTICE ALREADY ,THIS IS ALSO A CYCLICAL BIZ.IN THE BACKDROP OF SUCH INTERESTING DANGERS TO THE BIZ, IT BEGS THE BIGGEST QUESTION (ATLEAST ACCORDING TO  ME ) AN INVESTOR  FACES

AM I GETTING PAID TO TAKE RISK?????

 LETS FACE IT THERES NO DEARTH OF PLACES TO PUT OUR MONEY IN(ATLEAST 4 MODERATE TO SUB PAR RETURNS,ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT MARKET MELT DOWN).SO WOTS SO FUCKING AWSUM ABOUT TEESTA AGRO?
LETS TAKE A LOOK
BALANCE SHEET AWSUMNESS

TOTAL DEBT(WHICH INCLUDES ALL SHORT AND LONG TERM LIABILITIES,SERIOUSLY)=  17 CRORES

TOTAL CASH= 20 CRORES

SUNDRY DEBTORS = 22 CRORES

  1.5 CRORES APPROX WORTH  OF ALLAHABAD BANK SHARES

EPS= RS 2 APPROX (EVEN IF U DONT USE CASH EARNINGS LIKE I LIKE TO DO AND USE THE FREAKING EPS NO.)

CMP=RS.10
P/E =5

(NOTE: IVE LEFT OUT CURRENT LIABILITIES ,THE PURISTS CAN FRET AL THEY LIKE BUT I BELIEVE THEY LL   BE EASILY ABLE TO SERVICE THOSE...ALSO I VE LEFT OUT THE VALUE OF THE SSF INVENTORY)





I HOPE U D AGREE  FROM MY ALL TOO BRIEF ANALYSIS THAT@ RS.6 CRORE THE COMPANY IS  PRETTY CHEAP  ANYWAY U LOOK AT IT!!!!!!!!!!
OTHER POSITIVE FACTORS-
1.42 PERCENT PROMOTER HOLDING
2.they are CONSIDERING a dividend  1st tym eva


OTHER NEGATIVE FACTORS-
1.IT IS A PRETTY ILLIQUID STOCK,TRADES IN BATCHES OF 100 AND OFTEN DOENT TRADE 4 WEEKS...SO UNLESS U CAN W8 4 A MINIMUM OF  3 YEARS...DONT BOTHER


AND REMEMBER VOLATILITY IS A FRIEND

EAGER TO HEAR UR THOUGHTS PPL!!!!

Beating The Dalal Street............: Supreme Petro..now..Rs 72...My old call....@Rs.27...revisiting again....

Beating The Dalal Street............: Supreme Petro..now..Rs 72...My old call....@Rs.27...revisiting again....

truly intresting blogger and blog!

My first post ( WISH ME LUCK AND HI)

HI EVERY1,
AS U MAY GUESSED BY NOW ,THIS IS NOT YOUR AVERAGE VALUE INVESTING BLOG.THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE EVENTS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. MY PRIORITIES...WELL LETS JUST SAY ARE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SAME LINES(WINE, WOMEN AND MONEY )ANY DUDE MY AGE ....SO PLEASE DONT EXPECT ME TOO BE AS FREAKING AWESOME AS THE DUDES IM GONNA  LIST IN A FUTURE POST....IF U R A BEGINNER TO THE WORLD OF VALUE INVESTING ITS PROBABLY BEST  U CHEK THEM OUT FIRST .....IM JUST A WANNABE THESE ARE THE REAL PROS.....IM PROBABLY GONNA LEARN MORE FROM U THEN U FROM ME....LETS HOPE WE CAN BOTH BE USEFUL  TO EACH OTHER... I GUESS IM GONNA GET LIKE A DOZEN OR SO   FELLOW ADVENTURERS THIS WAY

HERE R THE GROUND RULES 4 OUR "RELATIONSHIP"-


1.DONT WASTE MINE OR UR TIME WITH FREAKING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ...I TRULY COULDNT CARE LESS!


2.FEEL FREE TO BE AS PROFANE AND FREE TO EXPRESS URSELF...DONT WORRY EVEN IF U THINK ITS GONNA LUK LIKE A STUPID QUESTION(DNT 4GET RULE NO.1 THOUGH)


3. DO UR OWN FREAKING RESEARCH .....I AINT UR DADDY


4.AND YEAH DNT 4GET...THE ONLY THINGS IN LIFE THAT U TRULY NEED ARE A CAN OF FOSTERS, A COPY OF SECURITY ANALYSIS AND BELIEF IN URSELF.


cheers to a new beginning!